Predictive Inferences for a Future Number of Failures Coming from Underlying Models under Parametric Uncertainty

Abstract

In this paper, we present an accurate procedure to obtain prediction limits for the number of failures that will be observed in a future inspection of a sample of units, based only on the results of the first in-service inspection of the same sample. The failure-time of such units is modeled with a two-parameter Weibull distribution indexed by scale and shape parameters β and δ, respectively. It will be noted that in the literature only the case is considered when the scale param-eter β is unknown, but the shape parameter δ is known. As a rule, in practice the Weibull shape parameter δ is not known. Instead it is estimated subjectively or from relevant data. Thus its value is uncertain. Thisδuncertainty may con-tribute greater uncertainty to the construction of prediction limits for a future number of failures. In this paper, we consider the case when both parameters βandδ,are unknown. In literature, for this situation, usually a Bayesian approach is used. Bayesian methods are not considered here. We note, however,that although subjective Bayesian prediction has a clear personal probability in-terpretation, it is not generally clear how this should be applied to non-personal prediction or decisions. Objective Bayesian methods, on the other hand, do not have clear probability interpretations in finite samples. The technique proposed here for constructing prediction limits emphasizes pivotal quantities relevant for obtaining ancillary statistics. and represents a special case of the method of invariant embedding of sample statistics into a performance index. Two versions of prediction limits for a future number of failures are given.