Modeling and Estimating the Impact of the OPEC Agreement on Oil Production in Russia

Abstract

The shale revolution in the United States dramatically changed the situation on the global oil market. The response to the shale boom of 2013-2014 was the OPEC + agreement, which aims to regulate the market in order to stabilize oil prices. The article analyzes the impact of the OPEC+ agreement on the global oil market, taking into account the dynamics of US oil shale production. A simulation dynamic game model is proposed, which describes the relationship between the oil demand, the strategy of oil supplying by the players and the dynamics of oil price. The model allows, by setting different strategies for the behavior of players, to simulate the movement of oil prices, which in turn affect the choice of players in their decisions on oil production and its supply to the market. The model includes three players: US shale companies, OPEC+ countries (including Russia), and non-OPEC countries (including conventional US oil production). The research methodology is based on scenario modeling and analysis of OPEC+ strategies for managing the supply and demand balance (decrease or increase in production) for targeting oil prices at specified target levels. We tried in this study to answer the question: is the OPEC agreement favorable for Russia? Calculations show that for Russia, in terms of maintaining market share, the option of targeting oil prices at lower levels is the most profitable, but at the same time, gross oil revenues of Russia are noticeably reduced.