New Analytics of International Relations: System Forecast of Cold War’s Outcomes

Abstract

Systemic forecasts of international relations evolution for quite a long time were quite a rare phenomenon. The main reason for this is the lack of independent of authors' ideological and political predilections reliable analysts, and this fact determines relevance of the current study. The main goal of the article is to develop new analytics that allows prediction of long-term trends in the evolution of international relations world system. Therefore, the algebra of relations and the corresponding section of predicate logic are used. The authors proved sixteen basic theorems on the properties of the world system. As the initial opposition, a pair of relations "dependence-independence" was chosen. The empirical conditions of the current state of affairs make it possible from the outset to exclude from the analysis the state of independence of states as a long-term factor of international politics. It was established that the world system of international relations can be strictly in one of three states – conflict, synergistic or antagonistic. The authors also carried out the forecast of the world states system dynamics after the end of the Cold War. In regards with impossibility of achieving by the international relations world system in the next thirty years any of two possible attractors – states of synergism and antagonism, predicts – its stable oscillation between these points of stability until at least the middle of the nineteenth century is forecasted. In practice, this means, depending on the direction of the trend, the emergence of a variety of waves of instability, primarily in the field of international security