Climate-Dependent Malaria Model with Delay in Mosquito Dynamics

Abstract

Climate variability plays a crucial role in understanding malaria transmission dynamics, particularly through its influence on mosquito population and the parasite’s developmental processes. Although temperature and rainfall have long been recognized as major climatic drivers of malaria spread, and hence most of the malaria models often overlook the combined effects of temperature-dependent aquatic-stage development and variation in the extrinsic incubation period of the parasite. This study develops a new temperature-dependent malaria transmission model that incorporates mosquito maturation delays, short- and long-term EIP routes, and an explicit aquatic-stage compartment. The model extends earlier frameworks by integrating nonlinear temperature relationships for key mosquito life-history traits and by distinguishing between short and long incubation processes through probabilistic weighting. This structure provides a more realistic representation of how climatic fluctuations regulate mosquito abundance, survival, and infectiousness. The resulting model enhances predictive accuracy in understanding malaria seasonality and transmission potential across varying environmental conditions. Numerical simulations demonstrate how temperature shifts alter the timing and intensity of outbreaks, highlighting the importance of climate-sensitive modelling for malaria surveillance and guiding adaptive vector control strategies. The proposed framework contributes to the refinement of climate-based malaria prediction tools and supports evidence-driven public health decision-making in endemic regions.