Assessing the Consistency of National Projects: How Target Achievement Could Transform Russia’s Quality of Life Ranking

Abstract

This study assesses the potential impact of Russia’s National Projects on the country’s global standing by integrating S.A. Aivazyan’s Quality of Life Index (QLI) with State-Space dynamic modelling. Using a panel of 14 socioeconomic indicators (2000–2022), we simulate Russia’s quality of life trajectory through 2036 under baseline and target-achievement scenarios. The analysis demonstrates that achieving government targets for life expectancy, fertility, infant mortality, and income inequality is statistically consistent with structural trends and would raise Russia’s global rank by 11 positions. These findings validate the internal consistency of Russia’s strategic planning goals and confirm the QLI’s utility as a tool for public administration effectiveness.