Mathematical Model of the Infection Spread in Transport Based on the Theory of Porous Medium

Abstract

Mathematical model of the spread of a virus in trains which considers transmission of infection from two types of sick passengers (clearly infected and latently infected) was built and named SEI (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected) model. Ventilation and movements of the passengers inside the train are considered through the porous medium equation. An algorithm for filling empty seats in the train is developed. A route of ten hours duration with two stop stations was simulated. The results of numerical calculations allow to conclude that asymptomatic infected passengers are the most dangerous group in the spread of infection.