Assessment of Impact of Trade Wars on Production and Exports of the Russian Federation Using the Agent-Based Model

Abstract

In this article we consider methods of simulating consequences of trade wars using the agent-based model. The presented model simulates dynamics of trade relations between Russia, the United States, China, the European Union, and the rest of the world. We present event structure of the model which reflects interaction among different types of agents in the model: countries, organizations and residents. International trade is simulated at micro-level, as a set of supplies (purchases and sales) of organizations in different countries. Volume and structure of trade flows is changed annually, based on the algorithm that takes into account existing and newly imposed trade restrictions and the expected change in final demand. For information support of the model we use official statistical sources of the countries included in the model. Before loading these data to the model we process it to the similar sectoral structure and time period. For scenario calculations we consider optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the world economy dynamics in the context of epidemiological risks and three possible options for world trade policy: preservation, cancellation or imposition of new trade restrictions. Simulation results for the Russian Federation show that current sanctions against it affect exports in a number of industries, but do not have a significant impact on the dynamics of value added, while imposition of new restrictions could slow down the economic growth rate by 0.3-0.5% annually.