Advances in Systems Science and Applications <p><strong><em>Advances in Systems Science and Applications </em></strong><strong>(<em>ASSA</em>) </strong>is an international peer-reviewed open-source online academic journal. Its&nbsp;scope covers all major aspects of systems (and processes) analysis, modeling, simulation, and control, ranging from theoretical and methodological developments to a large variety of application areas. Survey articles and innovative results are also welcome.</p> <p>ASSA is aimed at the audience of scientists, engineers and researchers working in the framework of these problems. ASSA should be a platform on which researchers will be able to communicate and discuss both their specialized issues and interdisciplinary problems of systems analysis and its applications in science and industry, including data science, artificial intelligence, material science, manufacturing, transportation, power and energy, ecology, corporate management, public&nbsp;governance, finance, and many others.</p> en-US (Natalya Pavlova) (Alla Shinkaryuk, Technical Editor) Thu, 06 Oct 2022 13:34:35 +0000 OJS 60 Stability and Bifurcation of a Delay Cancer Model in the Polluted Environment <p>It is well known that the spread of cancer or tumor growth increases in polluted environments. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of the cancer model in the polluted environment is studied taking into consideration the delay in clearance of the environment from their contamination. The set of differential equations that simulates this epidemic model is formulated. The existence, uniqueness, and the bound of the solution are discussed. The local and global stability conditions of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are investigated. The occurrence of the Hopf bifurcation around the endemic equilibrium point is proved. The stability and direction of the periodic dynamics are studied. Finally, the paper is ended with a numerical simulation in order to validate the analytical results.</p> Ahmed Ali Mohsen, Raid Kamel Naji ##submission.copyrightStatement## Fri, 30 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Models of Industrial Risk Control Systems <p>We investigate a problem of searching for Pareto equilibrium sets of an insurance rate and an industrial damage utilization price. We consider a system, which, in the case of industrial accidents, arises around an industrial firm. An industrial firm, a waste utilization firm, and an insurance company are considered as the system’s agents. We develop profit functions for the agents, and we determine compromise prices on waste utilization and insurance, which provide the system’s stability. We analyze the set of industrial risk control systems with a various number of the agents and the agent’s relations. A problem of determining an optimal solution is solved on the basis of maximizing agents’ profit functions. The sets of an equilibrium industrial damage utilization price and an equilibrium insurance rate are defined as Pareto equilibrium. A problem of determining the set of an insurance rate is solved taking into account constraints according to requirements of an industrial firm and an insurance company. A problem of determining the set of an industrial damage utilization price is solved taking into account constraints according to requirements of an industrial firm and a waste utilization firm. We consider the following models of industrial risk control systems: agents have a strong relation and a weak relation, additionally, one agent of each type and of many agents of the same type.</p> Elena Pavlovna Rostova, Mihail Geraskin ##submission.copyrightStatement## Fri, 30 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Dynamics of a Generalized Fractional Epidemic Model of COVID-19 with Carrier Effect <p>Currently, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause several new cases and deaths, and further new variants of the virus responsible this disease appear.<br>The present paper proposes a new mathematical model to understand the mechanisms<br>of the spread of COVID-19 and better describe its dynamics. The modes of infection<br>spread of COVID-19 via asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals are modeled by<br>two general nonlinear incidence functions in order to include several types of incidence<br>rates existing in the literature. When a disease outbreak within a community, individuals<br>acquire information about this disease. Therefore, the proposed model take into account<br>the memory effect on the outbreaks of COVID-19. This effect is modeled by a fractional<br>order derivative in Caputo sense. The mathematical analysis of the proposed model is<br>rigorously investigated, including the computation of the basic reproduction number R0<br>and the stability of equilibria.</p> Ahmed Ali Mohsen, Khalid Hattaf ##submission.copyrightStatement## Fri, 30 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Model of Calcium Dynamics Regulating IP3 and ATP Production in a Fibroblast Cell <p>Fibroblast cells are involved in the mechanism of growth and repair of tissue in human organs. Calcium (Ca2+) signaling is essentially required to maintain the microstructure and physiological function of the fibroblast cell. The study of Ca2+ signaling in fibroblast cells is crucial to understanding the mechanisms and disorders of fibroblast cells. The inositol 1,4,5- trisphosphate (IP3) participates in the release and extension of calcium from the endoplasmic reticulum (ER). Adenosine triphosphate (ATP) also regulate various biological activity like proliferation, migration, stimulation of cell growth, etc. Any disturbance in Ca2+ can disturb the levels of IP3 and ATP in the cell. The Ca2+ dynamics and its relationship with IP3 and ATP production are not well understood. There is a need to understand the relationship among various parameters of Ca2+ dynamics and its role in IP3 and ATP production. The Ca2+ dynamics in fibroblast have been investigated by several researchers, but no attention is reported for analyzing Ca2+ dynamic production of IP3 and ATP. A mathematical model is proposed for analyzing the role of Ca2+ signaling in the production of IP3 and ATP in fibroblast cells. The model incorporates the effect of diffusion, buffer, leak, sarco endoplasmic reticulum calcium ATPase (SERCA) pump, etc. The model is formulated in the form of an initial-boundary problem. The solution is obtained using the finite element approach. The effects of excessive or low values of various parameters on Ca2+ dynamics, ATP production, IP3 production, and IP3 degradation have been analyzed for possible disorders in functions of a fibroblast cell. The alterations in these parameters cause alterations in ATP production, IP3 production and IP3 degradation and Ca2+ concentration profiles. This alteration in parameters can be responsible for the function and dysfunction of fibroblast cells, leading to cardiac disease, fibrosis, delayed wound healing, etc. The results lead to conclusion that the changes in source influx, buffers, and diffusion coefficient can cause an increase or decrease in ATP and IP3 production and IP3 degradation leading to disorders of fibroblast cells like cardiac fibroblast cell proliferation and migration, which have a role in wound healing, inflammation, and cancer . Obtained results provide insights into the Ca2+-dependent production of IP3 and ATP in a fibroblast cell. These insights can be useful for developing diagnostics and treating disorders of fibroblast cells.</p> Ankit Kothiya, Neeru Adlakha ##submission.copyrightStatement## Fri, 30 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000 The Analysis of Big Data Centers Performance <p>The article proposes the approach for predicting the performance of big data processing center services. To simulate the process of parallel computing, the fork-join queuing system (QS) with a truncated Pareto distribution of service time and three variants of distributions for the incoming flow is used. The number of devices in each of the fork-join subsystems of the QS can be more than one. The performance scores are the average system response time and its tail delay (99th percentile of the response time distribution). The approach is based on a combination of simulation modeling and neural networks, as one of the methods of machine learning. For at least 93% of the data used to test the proposed method in the course of a numerical experiment the approximation error of both studied characteristics does not exceed 5%, while the maximum approximation error is not more than 10%.</p> Anastasia Gorbunova, Vladimir Mironovich Vishnevsky ##submission.copyrightStatement## Fri, 30 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Improving Health Through Healthcare Technologies Assessment Development: Further Perspectives for HTA Tools Development <p class="ASSAAbstract">The HTA progress requires analyses of existing and forthcoming needs as well as the development of tools meeting these needs. The proposed research presents hierarchical scheme for HTA development created based on Environmental Scanning and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The scheme presents the overall prognosis of HTA development indicating the key blocks of needs and relevant tools. Each of these tools are considered to be exclusively important for HTA development. Local registries are considered to be the priority for further HTA improving meeting more needs and providing less risks comparing to other tools.</p> Dmitry Meshkov, Oyvind Melien, Segey Cherkasov, Alexey Lobanov, Anna Fedyaeva ##submission.copyrightStatement## Fri, 30 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Determination of the Rollover Limitation of a Vehicle When Moving by 4-dimensional Plots <p>A vehicle rollover can occur when the driver steers at high speed. The vehicle is rolled over when the wheels are entirely separated from the road surface, i.e., the vertical force at the wheel will approach zero. This article aims to determine the rollover limitation of the vehicle under different conditions. The model of a complex dynamic is used to simulate vehicle motion. This model is a combination of three more petite models. It considers the impact of additional nonlinear variables. Therefore, it is considered the first novelty of the article. The calculations and simulations are performed in the MATLAB environment with specific conditions. Simulation results are given in the form of 4-dimensional plots; this is the second novel point of the article. This graph can fully show the dependence of the rollover limitation on other parameters. According to this result, if the vehicle's speed or height is increased, the vehicle's limited roll angle also increases. This reduces the vertical at the wheel. Once this force value reaches zero, the vehicle's roll angle will reach its maximum. The vehicle has the ability to roll over at any time. In addition, the magnitude of the steering angle also increases the risk of rollover. The article's results can be used to establish a rollover function, which describes the relationship between the rollover limitation and other factors. This content will be further developed in the upcoming studies.</p> Tuan Anh Nguyen ##submission.copyrightStatement## Fri, 30 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Asymptotic Properties of the Block-Type Statistics <p>Extreme value theory is an issue extensively applied in many different fields. One of the central points of this theory is the estimation of a positive extreme value index. In this paper we introduce a new family of block type statistics related to this estimation. A weak consistency of the introduced statistics is proved. A bivariate central limit theorem for newly introduced statistics is derived. We provide the new family of semi-parametric estimators for the positive extreme value index. Asymptotic normality of the introduced estimators is proved. It is shown that new estimators have better asymptotic performance comparing with several block-type estimators over the whole range of parameters presented in the second order regular variation condition. An application to the estimation of the positive valued extreme value index for several real data sets is provided.</p> Natalia Markovich, Marijus Vaičiulis ##submission.copyrightStatement## Fri, 30 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000 The Model of the Production Side of the Russian Economy: the Updated Version <pre style="-qt-block-indent: 0; text-indent: 0px; margin: 0px;">In this paper we propose the new version of the model of the production side of the Russian economy presented in [25]. We add several new features such as more general production function, more tractable human capital variable and the method of COVID-19 pandemic shock description. The new version of the model is capable of reproducing the wide set of main Russian macroeconomic indicators with sufficiently high accuracy even during the COVID-19 pandemic.</pre> Stanislav Radionov, Nikolay Pilnik ##submission.copyrightStatement## Fri, 30 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Three-Currency Deposit Diversification: Savage’s Principle Approach <p>The problem of optimal multi-currency deposit diversification with uncertain future exchange rates is studied as the problem of the minimization of the lost profit. It is assumed that only the ranges of these uncertain parameters are known. The Savage minimax regret conception is used to minimize the lost profit (risk by Savage) caused by uncertainty. The risk function and the function of the guaranteed risk are calculated in an explicit form. After that, the problem is reduced to finding the point of the minimum of a piecewise linear function under simple linear constraints. Explicit formulas for nine ”representative” point-candidates for the optimal solution are found. The final choice is made by direct comparison of the values of the Savage criterion at these points.</p> Vitaly Molostvov ##submission.copyrightStatement## Fri, 30 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000 A Revisit to the Prevalent Producer Theory with Emphasis Placed on Firms’ Individualism <p>As time elapses, an increasing number of theorists and practitioners expressed the urgent need for the community of economists to rebuild economic theories so that derived conclusions would be more readily applicable to real life. To answer this theoretically and practically important call, this paper attempts to reformulate some of the main conclusions of the producer theory so that firms are allowed to have their individually different criteria of optimality and methods of optimization, as the real-life business world dictates. To achieve this goal, on the basis of natural endowments of firms, this paper establishes a series of 7 generally true propositions, while it simultaneously examines how some of the presently well-known results hold true only conditionally. In the process of achieving this end, we generalize Hotelling’s and Shepard’s lemmas to much more relaxed scenarios than before. Because natural endowments are generally different from one firm to another, what is considered better is defined differently so that firms do not collectively produce a better society as a whole, even though each of them maximizes its selfinterest. In other words, one of the main conclusions this paper derives formally is that the invisible hand, as proposed so convincingly by Adam Smith, is indeed not only invisible but also nonexistent in real life, unless a supernatural being is out there to tell what is better for everyone. In the conclusion, several open questions are listed for future research.</p> Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest ##submission.copyrightStatement## Fri, 30 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Solvability of Control Systems with Antiperiodic Boundary Constraints <p>In this paper, we consider control systems with implicit dynamics and antiperiodic boundary constraints ont the fixed time interval. We derive sufficient conditions for the existence of admissible control for the systems of this type and obtain estimates of the admissible controls. These results remain considerable in the partial case when the considered dynamics is explicit.</p> Sergey Zhukovskiy, Aram V Arutyunov, Zukhra T Zhukovskaya ##submission.copyrightStatement## Fri, 30 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000