Advances in Systems Science and Applications https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa <p><strong><em>Advances in Systems Science and Applications </em></strong><strong>(<em>ASSA</em>) </strong>is an international peer-reviewed open-source online academic journal. Its&nbsp;scope covers all major aspects of systems (and processes) analysis, modeling, simulation, and control, ranging from theoretical and methodological developments to a large variety of application areas. Survey articles and innovative results are also welcome.</p> <p>ASSA is aimed at the audience of scientists, engineers and researchers working in the framework of these problems. ASSA should be a platform on which researchers will be able to communicate and discuss both their specialized issues and interdisciplinary problems of systems analysis and its applications in science and industry, including data science, artificial intelligence, material science, manufacturing, transportation, power and energy, ecology, corporate management, public&nbsp;governance, finance, and many others.</p> International Institute for General Systems Studies, Pennsylvania, USA en-US Advances in Systems Science and Applications 1078-6236 Dynamics of Evolutionary Equations with 1+2 Independent Variables https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1323 <p>The paper is devoted to a method for constructing exact solutions of evolutionary differential equations with two space variables.The method uses the theory of symmetries of completely integrable distributions. As an example, we consider a linear parabolic equation that arises in filtration theory, thermodynamics, and mathematical biology. Dynamics are calculated for this equation and classes of their exact solutions are constructed.</p> Alexei G. Kushner Elena N. Kushner Tao Sinian ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 1 10 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1323 On a Pseudodifferentional Calculation in Group Algebras https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1342 <p>The paper is devoted to the construction of pseudodifferentional operators over group algebras. An algebra of such operators is generated by central derivations. The equipping with an order function of this algebra is also shown. Some examples of such operators are given and some further ideas for the development of the new pseudodifferentional calculus are presented.</p> Andronick A. Arutyunov ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 11 18 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1342 Spacecraft Emergency Situations Automated Scenarios Design within the Framework of FDIR Concept and Dynamical Neural Networks Technique https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1297 <p>The space complex is considered as a Socio-CyberPhysical System (SCPS) in order to point out that the human factor is one of the most important ones in the analysis of emergency situations using spacecraft telemetry in the conditions of the current level of software development, information and technical resources of the space complex to ensure its functional stability. Functional stability of the system means its functionality under the influence of destructive factors of the external or internal environment. The concept of Fault Detection, Isolation, and Recovery (FDIR) is described, its advantages and drawbacks are pointed out in the context of the current problem. Based on the FDIR concept, decision support systems will be developed in future. In the framework of FDIR, spacecraft telemetry data is proposed to be used to design the monitor, the task of which is to identify and register emergency situations, based on modern data processing tools, namely, Dynamical Neural Networks (DNNs).</p> Alexey Tuturov Olga Andrianova Ernest Sleptsov Evgeniy Yurkevich Lidia Kryukova ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 19 30 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1297 The Influence of Image Morphology on Neural Network-Based Segmentation Results https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1308 <p>In this article, we have provided initial results of evaluating the influence of training data morphology on convolutional neural networks segmentation quality. To do this, we selected 4 different soil samples and segmented them using an unsupervised converging active contours algorithm. With the help of synthetic tomography algorithm, we obtained a true CT– ground-truth pairs for these soil samples. Then we acquired a set of samples with varying degrees of morphological properties similarity with the original soil samples by stochastic reconstructions. In order to check the effect of morphological properties on the quality of segmentation, we trained an U-Net model with ResNet50 encoder on pairs of synthetic CT – ground-truth data from the initial soil samples, and assessed the segmentation quality of synthetic CT obtained from stochastically reconstructed samples. Based on the metrics, we concluded that the quality of segmentation is more influenced by the morphological differences of the original soil samples than by difference from the generated stochastic reconstructions. We discussed possible ways to improve the future experiments design in order to finally close the issue outlined in this work.</p> Efim V. Lavrukhin Kirill M. Gerke ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 31 50 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1308 Oscillating and proper solutions of singular quasi-linear differential equations https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1337 <p>We study the behaviour of solutions of quasi-linear differential equations of the second order at their singular points,&nbsp;where the coefficient of the second-order derivative vanishes. We consider solutions entering a singular point either with definite tangential direction (proper solutions) or without definite tangential direction (oscillating solutions). Equations of this type appear in many problems arising in analysis, geometry, dynamical systems theory, and physics. First, we prove that a generic equation of the considered type has no oscillating solutions.&nbsp;Then we concentrate on proper solutions, which can enter a singular point in admissible tangential directions only.&nbsp;Great attention is paid to second-order differential equations, whose right-hand sides are cubic polynomials by the first-order derivative.<br>We obtain local representations for solutions of such equations in a form similar to Newton--Puiseux series --&nbsp;series with fractional exponents (and, in a special case, with logarithmic terms).</p> Natalya G. Pavlova Alexey O. Remizov ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 51 64 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1337 The Problem of Safe Evacuation of Large Floodplains Population During Flooding https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1310 <p>The floodplain environment of regulated large rivers make them attractive for urbanization. However, nearly flat terrain poses a threat of extensive flooding of such regions during severe floods. Therefore, the problem of effective organization of the population evacuation under the floods is topical for such floodplain areas. The spatial and temporal distribution of the flooding threat of large floodplains makes it possible to organize the population evacuation using a limited number of vehicles in the presence of a high-quality forecast of the hydrological regime. We study the problem of organizing the safe evacuation of all floodplain residents using fairly accurate forecasts of the flooding time points of settlements and evacuation routes based on high-performance hydrodynamic numerical experiments.&nbsp;Minimization of the number of evacuation vehicles on the set of safe schedules is carried out using empirical algorithms.&nbsp;The result is an empirical function of the dependence of the minimum number of vehicles that ensure the safe evacuation of the given territory population on the values of the hydrograph and the beginning moments of the evacuation.&nbsp;As an example, we built this function for the Northern part of the Volga-Akhtuba Floodplain.</p> Alexander A. Voronin Ann A. Vasilchenko Ann Yu. Klikunova Oksana Yu. Vatyukova Alexander V. Khoperskov ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 65 78 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1310 Bifurcation in the Model of Cargo Transportation Organization https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1301 <p>This article is devoted to the study of the model of cargo transportation organization between two nodal stations. The main characteristic of an arbitrary station is the degree of inconsistency between receiving and sending cargo, which is the difference between the volume of incoming and outgoing cargo per unit of time. The initial node station accepts goods depending on the demand for them within its technical potential, which is determined by the maximum allowable increase in the degree of inconsistency between the reception and dispatch of goods per unit of time. The movement of goods from one station to another is carried out within the framework of their technical potentials. The distribution of goods from the final node station is carried out in a certain mode. Such a model is described by a system of differential equations with a number of parameters that define the characteristics of the demand for cargo transportation, the degree of use of the technical potential of the stations and the mode of cargo distribution from the final node station. When changing the parameters of the model, a bifurcation effect occurs and multiple stationary solutions appear, among which the most acceptable from the point of view of economic feasibility are identified.</p> Nerses K. Khachatryan ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 79 91 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1301 Approximate Solutions and Estimate of Galerkin Method for Variable Third-Order Operator-Differential Equation https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1296 <p>The paper considers a variable third-order operator-differential equation in a separable Hilbert space. Under certain assumptions, it is proved that this ODE has a unique solution. The proof is based on a classical Galerkin discretization of the separable Hilbert space in term of certain eigenfunctions. The approximation quality of the Galerkin approximations can be controlled in terms of the eigenvalues.<br>We deduce estimates for the convergence rate of the approximate solutions to the exact one. An example provided as application to the investigated method.</p> Abdel Baset I. Ahmed ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 92 102 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1296 Binary Opinion Space in the SCARDO Model: Precise Analytical Description https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1292 <p>The paper presents the analysis of the SCARDO model in the case of the binary opinion space. The model itself and the conditions under which the analysis is performed are thoroughly described and discussed. Analytical solutions are found for the mean field approximation. The fixed points as well as their stability properties are characterized. Furthermore, we precisely describe the hyperplane in the parameter space that defines which opinion will gather more supporters. Extensive computational experiments are performed to demonstrate the applicability of our theoretical results. Experiments suggest that the mean-field approximation can fairly accurately predict the behavior of the model by anticipating the situations when the agents cannot make anticonformity-type opinion changes. At the end of the paper, we point out the possible direction for future studies.</p> Vladislav N. Gezha Ivan V. Kozitsin ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 103 115 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1292 Building a Digital Twin of Agricultural Production Based on Mathematical Modeling of Sustainability and Development Processes https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1264 <p>An approach to building a model of a digital twin of agricultural production is proposed. The modeling is based on the principle of sustainable economic development, harmoniously combining two interrelated processes: sustainability and development. Development requires expanding external relations, markets, and developing specialization. However, in cases of crisis, interruption in the supply of raw materials, closure of sales markets and other unfavorable circumstances, there should always remain a part of the economy, closed on itself, using its own resources and working for its consumers.</p> <p>The paper considers a structural and mathematical model of sustainable development of the agricultural production process, based on the so-called model of a typical production unit. It is a system of algebraic equalities and inequalities that estimate the power of individual components of the process and are based on balance ratios.</p> <p>Within the framework of the proposed model, it is possible to consider the sustainable development of the economy of individual agricultural regions, exploring both components of the region's economy and achieving their harmonious interaction. This model also allows us to consider the sustainable development of individual settlements, rural settlements based on local farms and private households, as well as individual agricultural production. In each case, it is necessary to ensure a harmonious combination of stability, self-sufficiency, at least food independence of farms and the possibility of their development.</p> <p>The proposed models, tuned to a specific online-managed production, can form the basis for the digitalization of agricultural production and serve as a tool to ensure its efficiency and continuous sustainable development</p> Rifkat Sirazetdinov Rustem Sabitov Gulnara Smirnova Shamil Sabitov Alexander Eponeshnikov ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 116 125 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1264 Raw Material Price Forecasting on Commodity Markets: Application of Expert and Quantitative Information https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1252 <p>The article considers the task of forecasting prices on the commodity market for the year ahead, broken down by months. The uncertainty level of the forecast increases with the increase of its horizon, due to changes caused by events of the external environment on the forecasting horizon. To reduce this uncertainty, we have proposed a hybrid model for the formation and correction of a monthly price forecast for the year ahead. This model uses for forecasting expert-analytical information processed using the FCM model, and data from time series of commodity market prices and macro indicators. Model of forecasting has based on the use of an ensemble of VECM and VAR models built at various time scales. For correcting the target indicator forecast on the forecasting horizon we have developed an algorithm based on signals of situation monitoring have been conducted on the FСМ-model of commodity market situation. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed technique for monthly forecasting of prices for black scrap a year ahead for 2019. The accuracy of the obtained forecast we compared with naive and ARIMA forecasts.</p> Zinaida K. Avdeeva Elena A. Grebenuyk Svetlana V. Kovriga ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 126 143 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1252 Analysis and Dynamics of Tuberculosis Outbreak: A Mathematical Modelling Approach https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1224 <p>Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by mycobacterium disease which causes major ill health in humans. Control strategies like vaccines, early detention, treatment and isolation are required to minimize or eradicate this deadly pandemic disease. This article presents a novel mathematical modelling approach to tuberculosis disease using Vaccinated-Susceptible-Latent-Mild-Chronic-Isolated-Treated model. We examined if the epidemiology model is well posed and then obtained two equilibria points (disease free and endemic equilibrium). We also showed that TB disease free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable if . We solved the model analytically using Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM) and the graphical representations and interpretations of various effects of the model parameters in order to measure the impact for effective disease control are presented. The findings show that infected populations will be reduced when the isolation and treatment rates and their effectiveness are high.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> Festus Abiodun Oguntolu Olumuyiwa James Peter Kayode Oshinubi Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola Asimiyu Olalekan Oladapo Mayowa Michael Ojo ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 144 161 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1224 The Collective Behavior of Robots Based on the Internet-of-Things Paradigm https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1149 <p>This paper considers a group of autonomous robots performing collective tasks in an environment. The environment is antagonistic and has objective and subjective influence factors: uncontrolled natural conditions that hamper collective mission fulfillment (e.g., night-time, fog, or rain) and a specially organized counteraction (e.g., the defense systems of a potential target under attack). The unpredictability of possible situations in the environment complicates collective tasks for robots. Therefore, probabilistic or fuzzy variables are used to describe the attributes of influence factors. The robots execute different roles within the group, operating independently to fulfill a collective mission. The robots are equipped with observation sensors and motion detectors. The collective behavior of robots is designed within the Internet-of-Things paradigm. The functions and resources of robots are represented as external services. They are automatically used by other robots via online requests when needed. The cooperative strategies of robots are implemented for resolving problem situations caused by the environment. Such an approach realizes the principle of collectivism. The efficiency of the suggested approach is studied using an illustrative example: active robots moving to targets secured by a defense system.</p> Vyacheslav Abrosimov Alexander Mazurov ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 162 175 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1149 Optimal Control Techniques for the Transmission Risk of Nipah Virus Disease with Awareness https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1245 <p>Nipah virus is one of the life-threatening infectious diseases in South-East Asian regions. In this study, we developed a compartmental model of Nipah virus transmission using an ordinary differential equation. We find the disease-free equilibrium and compute the basic reproduction number $(R_0)$. The sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the basic reproduction number of the model is studied and identifies the most sensitive parameters which can control the transmission dynamics of the Nipah virus. The model is extended to the optimal control problem and is analyzed by using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. Further, we analyze the cost-effective and three different time-dependent control strategies to minimize the number of infectives in during that period of time. Finally, compare the results of the optimal control models using numerical simulation.</p> Naba Kumar Goswami Fidele Hategekimana ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 176 192 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1245 Extending Obstacle Map of Autonomous Vehicles Based on Network Model of Local Positioning https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1307 <p>At present, an unmanned autonomous vehicle (AV) to provide accurate navigation during motion depends on GPS. The search and study for the alternative methods of AV localization is the demand to implement smart city concepts because in real-world conditions, the GPS signal may either be absent, or its accuracy may be insufficient to trajectory following and perform maneuvers. For collision avoidance to raise AV safety, the network model of local positioning is proposed. Control systems based on obtained local maps partially solve the problem of a safety motion. The presented simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the described approach to improving traffic safety in uncontrolled dynamic environments.</p> Alexander Abdulov ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 193 201 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1307 The Nature of the Combined Effect of Low Doses of Radiation and Chemical Pollutants in Doses Close to the Maximum Permissible, on the State of Somatic Health of the Population https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1237 <p style="font-weight: 400;">Technogenic development of the society besides improvement of social and living conditions of people leads to increase of emissions into the environment of industrial wastes, including radioactive wastes. The purpose of this work was to study the influence of low doses of radiation combined with chemical pollutants in doses close to the maximum permissible, on the health of people in comparison with similar health indicators of the population living in an area with similar chemical pollution (with radiological well-being) and in the area with "clean ecology".</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The study was conducted on the territory of one region for 3 years: from 2016 to 2018 in three districts: the first district - district with the presence of radiation and chemical pollution, the second district (comparison) - district with natural radiation background and chemical pollution and the third district (comparison) - district of "Environmental Wellbeing".</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The state of health of the population, the specified settlements was studied on the basis of analysis of data from the accounting Form № 12 (departmental form of state statistical observation of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation on Form 12 "Information on the number of diseases registered in patients residing in the service area of the medical organization" in the Moscow region, for 2016-2018 years).</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">It was found that both radiation and chemical pollution of the environment in low doses leads to an excessive risk of somatic diseases and MND. When their effects on the human body are summarized, the resulting negative effect on human health is intensified.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">In the studied area of the RWDF, natural and climatic features and the nature of anthropogenic influence led to contamination, first of all, of the air and soil, which affected the structure of cancer mortality, risks of development of MNS and the nature of pathology predominantly spread among the population - upper and lower respiratory tract diseases, allergological diseases, which opens new directions for preventive and health-improvement work among the population.</p> Petr Istratov ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 202 211 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1237 Computer Program to Automate the Determination of the Size of Sanitary Protection Zones (Spzs) and Surveillance Zones for the Storage of Sources of Ionizing Radiation in Places of Burial / Storage of Radioactive Waste https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1241 <p>The rapid development of nuclear power and industry, has led to the need to address the issues of waste disposal, which are sources of ionizing radiation and can be hazardous to human health. In this regard, the development of automated systems for preliminary assessment of the place of future disposal of radioactive waste (RW) and the width of the sanitary protection zone (SPZ), to avoid falling outside residential areas, is an urgent task. The purpose of this study was to develop algorithms for solving the task of processing and analyzing information for modeling the operation of the radioactive waste disposal system, as well as to test the performance of these algorithms in practice. On the basis of artificial intelligence (neural network) the "Computer program for automation of determination of dimensions of sanitary-protective zones (SPZ) and surveillance zones for storage of sources of ionizing radiation in places of burial/storage of radioactive wastes" was developed. The main advantage of the developed neural network is that it can identify non-obvious attributes for determining the size of sanitary protection zones (SPZ). These algorithms do not rely on the existing knowledge about the influence of the analyzed indicators, which makes them objective and allows to use them to create models of the state of storage of radiation sources.</p> Petr Istratov Yury Minaev Elena Zarubina Pavel Zolotariov ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 212 223 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1241 Cytokines Production in 120-day Confinement https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1234 <p>The aim of the current study was to estimate the effect of 120-day confinement in a hermetically sealed chamber with an artificial environment on the ability of cells of innate immunity with pattern-recognition receptors and T-cells of adaptive immunity to synthesize cytokines. The experiment reproducing the conditions of a real spaceflight to the Moon was conducted in the ground-based analog facility called Nazemnyy Eksperimental’nyy Kompleks, or NEK, within the Institute of Biomedical Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow. The study presents the results of the analyses of cytokines production by immunocompetent cells from peripheral blood of six test-volunteers in response to <em>in vitro</em> antigen stimulation. We managed to demonstrate that the confinement led to the decreased LPS-induced cytokines and chemokines production. Also, increased Th1/Th2, Th1/Th9, and Th1/Th17 cytokines ratios in response to PHA were revealed.</p> Sergey A. Ponomarev Marina P. Rykova Evgeniya N. Antropova Anastasia A Sadova Ksenia D. Orlova Sophia M. Shulgina Darya D. Vlasova Olga V. Kutko Elina A. Zhirova Evgeniy A. Lysenko Vyacheslav A. Schmarov ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 224 232 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1234 Estimation of the Posterior Probabilities of Classes by the Approximation of the Anderson Discriminant Function https://ijassa.ipu.ru/index.php/ijassa/article/view/1167 <p>The approximation of the Anderson discriminant function at a given point in the feature space of two classes using a supervised training sample allows estimating the posterior probabilities of classes as easily as converting Fahrenheit degrees to Celsius degrees. These probabilities make it possible to further solve the classification problem with subjectively specified costs of classification errors and criteria. The training sample is simply converted to a regression analysis sample by replacing the class numbers with differences in error costs. A nonparametric method for approximating the discriminant function at a point is proposed. It does not require the specification of an approximation function at a point more complex than a linear one. Examples are given.</p> Valery Zenkov ##submission.copyrightStatement## 2022-12-30 2022-12-30 22 4 233 241 10.25728/assa.2022.22.4.1167